30
The War on Aging
before the age of one instead lived to an age typical of those of
their cohort who survived infancy certainly at least 50 years
on average. Thus, Pasteur may well have added on the order
of a billion person-years to human life.
The demographic result is that deaths in infancy are now
vastly outnumbered by deaths between ages 50 and 100. But
this is not reflected in our priorities, as demonstrated by the
resources allocated to medical research and care. Enormous
effort is made to maintain the life of sick babies, and nobody
disputes the merit of such a policy. Indeed, it seems difficult to
imagine any argument against it that does not utterly fly in the
face of all that we instinctively know about human morality.
In this article I explore an extremely straightforward scenario,
whose neglect by others can, I feel, stem only from unjustifiable
short-sightedness: that humanitys progress in reducing death
rates at older ages will recapitulate the sequence just outlined
for infant mortality. Some time quite possibly within only a
few decades, as I have discussed extensively elsewhere and will
therefore only summarize here we will make breakthroughs
in maintaining and restoring the health and vigor of the elderly
comparable, in terms of healthy years added to their lives, to
what Pasteur and those who implemented his ideas gave to
those otherwise destined to die in infancy. Forever thereafter,
I suggest, we will strive vigorously to reduce the incidence of
involuntary death (at whatever age) yet further. In the sec-
tions that follow I sketch some of the major advances that
we seem likely to make in this endeavor. The later episodes
that I describe may seem uninterestingly distant at first, but
such nonchalance becomes questionable when one consid-
ers how early in this chain of events those with access to the
latest medical care will begin to enjoy a diminishing mortality
risk an increasing remaining life expectancy as time passes.
(I like to call this the achievement of life extension escape veloc-
ity.) In a nutshell, I claim it is probable that most of the first